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The Sino-US summit held in Beijing seems to be a regular high-level meeting, but the real game has already been launched under the table. Different from the outside world, this time, the initiative is more in the hands of Xi Jinping, rather than the US President Trump, who is deeply involved in overseas conflicts.
1. Iran War: Accidentally Becomes China's Strategic Leverage
The ease of Sino-US relations over the past year has mainly relied on a trade truce; but now, the Iranian war has fundamentally changed the situation.
- America is in the Middle East, military and diplomatic resources are heavily restrained.
- China has made frequent appearances as “peace advocates”, to receive Gulf countries and European dignitaries, showing their influence in the Middle East.
- The Iranian foreign minister's visit to China on the eve of the summit is more like a signal to the outside world:Tehran is willing to listen to Beijing.
China has key economic leverage to Iran, especially in the energy and investment sector. Beijing does not need military intervention, as long as I am willing to promote Iran to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, it is enough to let the United States lower its stance at the negotiating table.
2. Beijing is not really concerned about Iran, but Taiwan
The Iran war is just a “chip”, and the real goal is Taiwan.
Xi hopes that the United States will make substantial concessions on the Taiwan issue, including:
- Delay or reduce arms sales to Taiwan
- Openly reiterate its opposition to “Taiwan independence”
- Weakening the military presence of the United States in the Taiwan Strait
The Trump administration has previously postponed a $13 billion war in arms sales to avoid angering Beijing. Now Trump once again expressed his willingness to “discuss arms sales to Taiwan”, which itself has broken through the “six guarantees” that the United States has long insisted on.
For Beijing, this is a rare strategic window.
3. The Iran war exposes the pressure of the US military, and China has more confidence
Chinese academic circles generally believe that the United States has exposed several weaknesses in the conflict in the Middle East:
- Ammunition stocks are consumed in large quantities
- Military powers are drawn from Asia Pacific
- It is difficult to deal with two high-intensity conflicts at the same time
This makes Beijing judge:The United States has no ability to head head to China on the Taiwan issue.
Therefore, China has more confidence to promote its own concerns at the summit.
4. Beijing's ultimate goal: redefining the Sino-US relations
The meaning of this summit is far more than exchanging chips.
What Xi Jinping wants to achieve is a “new positioning”:
- As the world's second largest economy, China should be on an equal footing with the United States
- Sino-US relations should shift from “competition and confrontation” to “controllable coexistence”
- The United States cannot ask China to cooperate, and at the same time sanction Chinese companies
The editorial published by Xinhua News Agency on the eve of the summit also emphasized:The United States can't “take advantage of both ends” on China's issue”.
5. China is buying time: preparing for future competition
China is not in a hurry to get specific concessions at the summit, what it needs more is:
- Continuing trade ceasefire
- Avoid new tariffs and export controls
- Strive for a stable external environment
During this time, China is making every effort to promote:
- Technology and industry chain autonomy
- Breakthrough of chip localization
- AI systems circumvent US restrictions (such as DeepSeek's policies)
- Ability to counter American sanctions
China will also release goodwill when necessary, such as purchasing Boeing aircraft, soybeans and beef in exchange for overall stability.
Summary: This is a summit of “the attitude is greater than the agreement”
Xi is not in a hurry to reach a specific agreement with Trump because:
- Iran war gives China an unprecedented strategic leverage
- U.S. shows signs of loosening on Taiwan issue
- China is trying to strengthen its own strength
- Beijing is more concerned with the long-term positioning of Sino-US relations, rather than short-term interests
The real meaning of this summit is: China is reshaping the rules of Sino-US relations with a more confident attitude.
